'Consensus science' hot air

National Post 

Saturday, June 24, 2006 

Page: FP15 

Section: Financial Post: Comment 

Byline: Lee Gerhard 

Source: Financial Post 

 I appreciate the comments of Terence Corcoran about science. Getting climate change information from politicians and those who hold political or quasi-religious beliefs is nonsense. As far as consensus science is concerned, elections are settled by votes, but science is settled by data. Please do not confuse the two. 

 Those who hold that humans are causing climate change have computer models on their side, but those models cannot replicate past climate changes. Those who understand that climate changes naturally all the time, in both directions, and at many scales of intensity, have huge amounts of data and observations on their side, along with recorded human history. Matching Earth temperature, carbon dioxide and solar intensity variation for the last 250 years, for example, demonstrates a very close correlation between solar variations and temperature change, whereas there is little correlation between carbon dioxide and temperature change. Research has shown that in the past, carbon dioxide rises follow temperature rises, they do not precede them. If the Arctic is melting, it is because we are in the third human-recorded 1,100-year solar maximum, following the Roman warm event and the Medieval warm event. 

 There is a real test coming, however. U.S. NOAA calculations published recently suggest that a solar minimum is to occur around 2025. Perhaps politicians and zealots should get out of the way and let science do its work. 

 Lee Gerhard, Director (Retired), Senior Scientist Emeritus, Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kan.