HYPERLINK "http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu/2006/07/07/nbcdiscovery-channel-show/" \o "Permanent Link: TV Special \“Global Warming\” to Air July 16, 2006" TV Special “Global Warming” to Air July 16, 2006
http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu/2006/07/07/nbcdiscovery-channel-show/
— Roger Pielke Sr.
I was invited to review the upcoming two-hour July television special presentation on the Discovery Channel entitled “GLOBAL WARMING” which is hosted by award-winning journalist Tom Brokaw and produced by the Discovery Channel, the BBC and NBC News Productions.
The special premieres Sunday, July 16, 9-11 PM. As I was informed
“…the special presents the facts and leaves it up to the viewers to determine their own truth about global warming.”
The HYPERLINK "http://68.178.158.128/Discovery/GlobalWarming/assets/GlobalWarming_Scientists_Final.doc" Science Committee chosen to advise on the special and to provide interviews include Dr. James Hansen Chief, NASA Institute for Space Studies; Dr. Greg Holland Director, Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division National Center for Atmospheric Research, Dr. Mark Serreze Senior Research Scientist National Snow and Ice Data Center, Dr. Stephen Pacala Professor and Director of Graduate Studies, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University and Dr. Michael Oppenheimer Professor of Geosciences and International Affairs Princeton University.
The HYPERLINK "http://68.178.158.128/Discovery/GlobalWarming/assets/GlobalWarming_Premiere_Release.doc" news release for the show states,
“The international team of experts, including NASA’s top climate scientist Dr. James Hansen, and Princeton University professors Michael Oppenheimer and Stephen Pacala, will discuss the current realities of global warming and predict the future of the planet. Many of the experts will address natural warming and cooling cycles going back 600,000 years, and discuss if the present warming trend is unnatural.”
These scientists have published influential peer reviewed papers on the subject of climate. However, their perspective on climate change is very well known, and they are frequently quoted in the media . Moreover, as anyone who has read this weblog realizes, they present a narrow view of the issue of natural and human climate variability and change. The presentation in this special is very similar to the HBO HYPERLINK "http://www.hbo.com/docs/programs/toohot/?ntrack_para1=leftnav_category5_show1" “Too Hot to Handle”.
It is a disappointment that this show, hosted by Tom Brokaw, did not use the two hours to present a balanced view on the spectrum of perspectives on the human influences on the climate system. The show relied on just a few scientists with a particular personal viewpoint on this subject which misleads the public on the broader view that is actually held by most climate scientists. The show should have presented perspectives such as reported in the 2005 National Research Council Report HYPERLINK "http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309095069/html/" “Radiative forcing of climate change: Expanding the concept and addressing uncertainties” . This Report not only included a diversity of authors, but was peer reviewed.
The show also contains errors and misconceptions. Three examples are presented here. Rapid glacial retreat is not a new observation, nor are all glaciers retreating ( HYPERLINK "http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu/2006/06/18/248/" see). The Grand Pacific glacier in Glacier Bay National Park, for example, retreated 48 miles from 1794 to 1879, and a further 17 miles by 1916. Large masses of glacial ice breaking from the Antarctic continent are not a new feature of this region (e.g. HYPERLINK "http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/media/IcebergC-19.html" see, where the crack on an ice mass that subsequently ruptured in 2002 was seen “about as long as people have been going to Antarctica”). Greg Holland’s suggestion that we may need a “category 6″ Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is not supported by any research that I am aware, or even what such a new category would mean.
My class HYPERLINK "http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/courses/at786.shtml" s “Human Impacts on Weather and Climate“, which I taught at Colorado State University in the spring of 2005 and will teach at the University of Colorado in Boulder in the spring of 2007, has the students examine claims made in the media and published papers to determine if they are scientifically sound. Media presentations, such as this Discovery Channel special, are an ideal candidate for the students to evaluate.
The special ends with recommendations to reduce the emissions of CO2 in the atmosphere. CO2 and fossil fuels are explicitly mentioned as the “villains”. However, the reduction of emissions, in conjunction with improved energy efficiency, reduces a wide variety of gaseous and aerosol emissions into the atmosphere, as well as saving money! Why not start with these benefits, which include, but are not limited to CO2? If the global climate starts to cool, does this mean that we should not adopt energy efficiency?
A scientifically balanced presentation would discuss the broad variety of human forcings ( HYPERLINK "http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu/category/climate-change-forcings/" as has been discussed often on this weblog) which collectively are altering our climate. The show would also mention that of the reported global warming that has occurred, only at most about 28% can be attributed to CO2 ( HYPERLINK "http://climatesci.atmos.colostate.edu/2006/05/26/fundamental-global-warming-questions/" see).
Finally, I summarize the eight bullet summary points that are headlined on this weblog. The special could have focused on these issues, each of which has peer reviewed papers that provide scientific support.
Summary Conclusions on Climate Change and Variability:
1. Focus on the regional and local scales.
2. Global and zonally-averaged surface temperature trend assessments do not provide significant information on climate change and variability on the regional and local scales.
3. Global warming is not equivalent to climate change.
4. The spatial pattern of ocean heat content change is the appropriate metric to assess global warming.
5. Most climate assessments have overstated the role of the radiative effect of the anthropogenic increase of CO2 relative to the role of the diversity of other human climate forcing on global warming, and more generally, on climate variability and change.
6. Global and regional climate models have not demonstrated skill at predicting climate change and variability on multi-decadal time scales.
7. Attempts to significantly influence regional and local-scale climate based on controlling CO2 emissions alone is an inadequate policy for this purpose.
8. The identification of the spectrum of threats to regional and local societal and environmental resources of importance should be the framework to interact with policymakers.