GLOBAL WARMING CANNOT BE STOPPED

[CSPP Note: comments at end are those of Benny Peiser of CCNET.]

The Times, 4 September 2006

HYPERLINK http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2341516,00.html http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-2341516,00.html

BY MARK HENDERSON

Our correspondent reports from the British Association for the Advancement of Science's Festival of Science

THE world must be more realistic about the chances of preventing climate change and prepare for the inevitability of global warming, the head of one of Britain's foremost scientific societies will urge today. 

Politicians and environmentalists have failed to understand how difficult it will be to curb global warming and are overlooking the importance of adapting to the hotter world it will bring, according to Frances Cairncross, the President of the British Association for the Advancement of Science. 

While measures to cut the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming are essential, they have been emphasised over and above the equally vital need to develop ways of coping with climate change, Ms Cairncross will say.The "ineffectual" Kyoto Treaty will not stop temperatures rising, as the US and large developing nations such as China and India are not involved, and even if a global agreement to limit carbon dioxide emissions is reached, a significant degree of warming is still likely. 

As a result, scientists and governments need to think now about measures, such as better flood defences and wildlife corridors, that will help threatened species to migrate as habitats are lost. 

"Adaptation policies have had far less attention than mitigation, and that is a mistake," Ms Cairncross will say in her presidential address to the association's Festival of Science in Norwich. 

"We need to think about policies that prepare for a hotter, drier world, especially in poorer countries. That may involve, for instance, developing new crops, constructing flood defences, setting different building regulations, or banning building close to sea level." 

Ms Cairncross's message will be controversial as many environmental groups have discouraged talk of adapting to global warming as an inevitability for fear that it will hand politicians an excuse for fail- ing to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Ms Cairncross, an economist who is also Rector of Exeter College, Oxford, believes, however, that there is no reason why adaptation and mitigation cannot proceed hand-in-hand. "There are some things that we can't adapt: we can't relocate the Amazon rainforest or replace bleached coral reefs, but we have to think about adaptation with mitigation," she said. 

WHAT WE CAN DO NOW

Wildlife corridors Conservation areas from north to south would allow species to migrate when present habitats become too hot 

Coastal defences Decisions must be taken now to strengthen sea walls or manage the inundation of vulnerable stretches of land 

Flood plains Building on flood plains should be restricted or banned, to reduce the risk of catastrophic flooding amid more extreme weather and higher sea levels 

Building regulations More insulation would save energy in winter, keep buildings cooler in summer. More covered public spaces would provide shade and shelter from storms 

New crops Drought and heat-tolerant strains of crops will be needed for a warmer world

Copyright 2006, The Times

EDITOR'S NOTE: It is most refreshing to hear that the BA seems to have adopted a realistic position on climate change policy that some of us have been advocating for some time (see my latest take here

HYPERLINK http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/adapttoclimatechange.htm http://www.staff.livjm.ac.uk/spsbpeis/adapttoclimatechange.htm)

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Heat wave or big freeze, we just learn to adapt

Daily Post, 25 July 2006

 HYPERLINK "http://icliverpool.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/breakingnews/tm_objectid=17442226%26method=full%26siteid=50061%26page=3%26headline=can%2dwe%2ddo%2danything%2dabout%2dglobal%2dwarming%2d-name_page.html" http://icliverpool.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/breakingnews/tm_objectid=17442226%26method=full%26siteid=50061%26page=3%26headline=can%2dwe%2ddo%2danything%2dabout%2dglobal%2dwarming%2d-name_page.html

By Benny Peiser

In my work, I look at how societies throughout history have dealt with climate change.

Britain has gone through extreme cold periods like the Ice Age. Then we had warm periods in the Middle Ages, cold periods again, and we are now in a warm period.

All societies have different experiences with the weather. The question is: how can they become less vulnerable to climate change and build up their resilience?

We have to look at coping with and adapting to these weather events, because - in the short term at least - we will not be able to change it.

I do not think anyone is questioning we are now in a period of global warming, so we should expect summers to get hotter. But there is no way that, in the next one or two generations, we will be able to do anything about global warming.

Although Britain is trying to do something, most countries cannot. Even Europe as a whole is failing to control carbon dioxide emissions. Meanwhile, in the Far East, China is building one coal-fired power station a week.

There is still a debate on how much of global warming is due to human input and how much is simply a case of natural warming cycles.

However, we should forget about the science behind global warming - that is irrelevant. What matters is what people do to protect themselves when a hot summer is on the way. People say this is the hottest summer since 1911. All that means is they must have had a terribly hot heat wave 95 years ago. What caused that?

There was no global warming in 1911 and carbon dioxide emissions were far below today's. Who did they blame back then? Perhaps God. Or maybe they just put it down to freak weather.

We have had periods in the last few thousand years where it was much warmer than it is today. It is nothing people cannot cope with. It is just unusual because individuals have such short memories.

Many years ago, societies were more rigid and could not cope with climate change. Many were agricultural, and if they had a drought, a failed crop could lead to starvation. But this is nothing we are concerned about today. A lot of people are not that unhappy about the warm climate. Older people suffer if they have not got support. But, by and large, children and normal people love it, and it is not causing an economic or social disaster.

I personally think, from a scientific perspective, it is irrelevant whether the current heatwave is due to a freak weather event or caused by a general warming trend, because there will always be heat waves.

In the near future, whether global warming is man-made or not, we will still have to deal with the consequences.

It is an illusion to think we can reverse that trend.

To cut a long story short, people need to live with hot summers.