Arctic
resists warming
http://www.adn.com/news/environment/warming/story/8417240p-8310749c.html
RESEARCHERS: New patterns of cooling ocean currents,
winds suggest region is struggling to keep its balance.
*******
[CSPP Notes: How to spin evidence of
natural variability into AGW alarmism.
Is the Artic ÒstrugglingÓ or just going through its natural cycles? As can be seen from real temperature
data, the Artic went through its last warming cycle in the 1920-1940-period.
Thus, current cooling is not a Ònew patternÓ nor is it reverting to Ònormal
conditions.Ó This hardly qualifies
as a Òunique
situation.Ó The Arctic is seemingly just being the
ÒArctic.Ó Also, one can find in
the data for Arctic surface temperature anomalies that variability correlates
better to variable solar activity than industrial CO2 emission patterns.
Nor are the comings and goings of Arctic sea unusual in
meaningful time spans, long enough to detect trends. As the graphic suggests, even a three or four year span (1850-1853)
can produce wide sea ice variability in specific locations.
This and other real data (instead of conflicting computer
models of virtual realities) have led Arctic experts to disagree with NOAA's
claims as reported in the LA Times piece below:
ÒIf long-term trends are accepted as a valid measure of
climate change, then the air temperature and ice data do not support the proposed polar
amplification of [CO2] global warming. The potential importance of large-amplitude
variability
and numerous feedbacks involved in Arctic atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions
implies that the Arctic poses severe challenges to generating credible model-based projections of
climate change.Ó – Polyakov, Akasofu and 7 other
colleagues from the International Arctic Research Center (2002, Eos, vol. 83,
no. 47, pp 547-548)
AndÉ
Bitz & Goose (2006): ÒAmplification
of Arctic surface warming is a well-known feature of climate model projections
for mid and late 21st century. However, as of 2004, observed Arctic surface
warming is not
yet significantly higher than the whole northern hemisphere. Using historical
[climate model] runs and future scenarios to estimate trends and internal
variability [not
man-induced], we predict Arctic warming wonÕt be significantly greater than
the northern hemisphere until at least 2020.Ó
FinallyÉ
ÒConclusions that greenhouse-gas forcing has been a
significant player in recent Arctic warming must be viewed cautiously. ... In general, models project
the largest warming during late autumn and winter. By comparison, the
observations show maximum winter and spring warming for land and winter though
summer warming over the Arctic Ocean. ... Furthermore, the magnitude and
spatial structure of Arctic warming vary across models. The GFDL model shows
the strongest warming over the Arctic Ocean, particularly the areas of sea ice
retreat. The MPI model shows a much weaker warming and one that is centered
over the Pacific subarctic. The UKMO model shows a warming that is stronger
over the subarctic land areas. More recently, BMRC+CSIRO models also show a
stronger warming over subarctic land areas relative to the subarctic ocean
areas. ... [M]any models suffer from known deficiencies in their
parameterizations of high-latitude processes. For example, the modelsÕ strong
warming in autumn and winter results largely from a delayed freeze-up after an
enhancement of ocean heat storage in areas that are newly ice-free during
summer. Yet these changes are highly sensitive to the parameterization of sea
ice and its albedo. Many GCMs simply prescribe sea ice concentrations (e.g.,
90%, 100%) in grid cells in which ice is present; such specifications can
grossly oversimplify the spring/summer melt process and ensuing heat storage in
the upper ocean. Cloud feedbacks add to the scatter among models, making it
difficult to identify an Arctic ÔfingerprintÕ of greenhouse warming in the
model results.
Ó -- Serreze et al. (2000) Climatic
Change, vol. 46, 159-207
Again, current Arctic sea ice
extents are also not unusual, and therefore cannot with confidence point to
man-made warming.
**********
RESEARCHERS: New patterns of cooling ocean currents,
winds suggest region is struggling to keep its balance.
Published:
November 17, 2006
Last Modified: November 17, 2006 at 02:31 AM
An
international team of scientists reported Thursday that rising temperatures are
steadily transforming the Arctic -- warming millions of square miles of permafrost,
promoting lush greenery on previously arid tundras and steadily shrinking the
annual sea ice.
Yet
the researchers also found new patterns of cooling ocean currents and prevailing winds
that suggested the Arctic, long considered a bellwether of global warming, may
be reverting in some ways to more normal conditions not seen since the 1970s.
Taken
together, these findings may be evidence, the researchers said, of the region
struggling to keep its balance, as rising temperatures slowly overturn the
long-established order of seasonal variations.
"This
is a region that is fighting back," said lead author Jacqueline
Richter-Menge, a civil engineer at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering
Laboratory in Hanover, N.H. "There are things that showed signs of going
back to norms, trying to right themselves under very dire circumstances."
For a
year, 20 researchers in seven countries reviewed the condition of the
atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land at the top of the world. They summarized
their findings in the "State of The Arctic," a report released
Thursday by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.
On
average, global temperatures have been steadily warming for decades -- 2005 was
the warmest year since record-keeping began in 1880 -- but the polar region
appears to be warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. Local weather
variations at Earth's upper latitudes create a seesaw of annual hot spots and
cold sinks above the Arctic Circle that, combined with incomplete data records,
can easily disguise longer regional climate trends.
By
pulling together data from many countries and scientific sources, the
researchers sought to determine more conclusively how the climate throughout
the Arctic behaved from 2000 through winter 2006.
"Arctic
temperatures were above their average -- at least 1 degree centigrade above
average over the entire Arctic over the entire year. This is a unique
situation," said co-author James Overland at NOAA's Pacific Marine
Environmental Laboratory in Seattle.
The
study reports an increase in northward movement of warmer water through the
Bering Strait in 2001 to 2004. This may have contributed to a continuing
reduction of sea ice.
Last
year, the Arctic sea ice set record lows every month except May, the
researchers reported, continuing a trend that started in 2000. The permanent
ice cap has been thinning as well. Summer melting began earlier every year of
the study and was more extensive.
Glaciers
everywhere receded. For the past five years, rivers flowing into the Arctic
Ocean have been 3 percent to 9 percent higher than average with fresh melt
water, stream gauges showed. That, in turn, has made the seawater less salty,
affecting ocean currents.
Permafrost
throughout the Alaska Arctic steadily warmed, records documented. Last year,
soil temperatures in the interior of Alaska were among the warmest of the past
70 years, the researchers reported.
In
response, vegetation in the tundras increased by 10 percent over the past 20
years, satellite measurements showed.
Shrubs
rooted more readily above the Arctic Circle in Alaska and Siberia. The new
ground cover provided shelter for some creatures while making it harder for
others, such as reindeer and caribou herds, to move through their grazing
grounds.
The
study was designed to assess the overall impact of climate change in the Arctic
and will be updated annually. It was compiled by researchers from the United
States, Canada France, Germany, Poland, Norway, Sweden and Russia, she said.
In
addition, 2007 has been designated the International Year of the Arctic, with
intense scientific study of the region planned.
There
have been many changes over the Arctic land areas, said Vladimir E. Romanovsky,
a professor at the geophysical institute of the University of Alaska. These
include changes in vegetation, river discharge into the Arctic Ocean, glaciers
and permafrost.
The
tundra is becoming greener with the growth of more shrubs, he said. This
development is causing problems in some areas as herds of reindeer migrate.
At
the same time, there is some decrease in the greening of the northern forest
areas, probably due to drought. The glaciers are continuing to shrink and river
discharge into the Arctic Ocean is rising, Romanovsky said.
The
Associated Press contributed to this story.
Key
findings
¥
temperature: One degree Celsius above average over the entire year.
¥ sea
ice: Record lows last year for every month except May.
¥
Glaciers: For the past five years, rivers have been 3 percent to 9 percent
higher than average.
¥
permafrost: Last year, soil temperatures were among the warmest of past 70
years.