CAUTION URGED ON HYPING CLIMATE 'RISKS'
BBC News, 17 March 2007
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By Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News
Two leading UK climate researchers have criticised those among their peers who
they say are "overplaying" the global warming message.
Professors Paul Hardaker and Chris Collier, both Royal Meteorological Society
figures, are voicing their concern at a conference in Oxford.
They say some researchers make claims about possible future impacts that cannot
be justified by the science.
The pair believe this damages the credibility of all climate scientists.
They think catastrophism and the "Hollywoodisation" of weather and climate only
work to create confusion in the public mind.
They argue for a more sober and reasoned explanation of the uncertainties about
possible future changes in the Earth's climate.
As an example, they point to a recent statement from one of the foremost US
science bodies - the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
The association released a strongly worded statement at its last annual meeting
in San Francisco in February which said: "As expected, intensification of
droughts, heatwaves, floods, wildfires, and severe storms is occurring, with a
mounting toll on vulnerable ecosystems and societies.
"These events are early warning signs of even more devastating damage to come,
some of which will be irreversible."
According to Professors Hardaker and Collier, this may well turn out to be true,
but convincing evidence to back the claims has not yet emerged.
"It's certainly a very strong statement," Professor Collier told BBC News.
"I suspect it refers to evidence that hurricanes have increased as a result of
global warming; but to make the blanket assumption that all extreme events are
increasing is a bit too early yet."
'Scientific basis'
A former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, Professor Collier is
concerned that the serious message about the real risks posed by global warming
could be undermined by making premature claims.
"I think there is a good chance of that," he said. "We must guard against that -
it would be very damaging.
"I've no doubt that global warming is occurring, but we don't want to undermine
that case by crying wolf."
This view is shared by Professor Hardaker, the society's chief executive.
"Organisations have been guilty of overplaying the message," he says.
"There's no evidence to show we're all due for very short-term devastating
impacts as a result of global warming; so I think these statements can be
dangerous where you mix in the science with unscientific assumptions."
The AAAS said it would not be commenting directly on the professors' remarks.
"We feel that the recent consensus statement of the AAAS Board of Directors
speaks for itself and stands on its own," a spokesperson explained.
"The AAAS Board statement references (at the end), the scientific basis upon
which the conclusions are based, including the joint National Academies'
statement and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."
The 'right thing'
Professor Hardaker also believes that overblown statements play into the hands
of those who say that scientists are wrong on climate change - that global
warming is a myth.
"I think we do have to be careful as scientists not to overstate the case
because it does damage the credibility of the many other things that we have
greater certainty about," he said.
"We have to stick to what the science is telling us; and I don't think making
that sound more sensational, or more sexy, because it gets us more newspaper
columns, is the right thing for us to be doing.
"We have to let the science argument win out."
The pair have contributed to a pamphlet called Making Sense of the Weather and
Climate, which will be presented on Saturday at the Garden Quadrangle Auditorium
at St John's College, Oxford.
The AAAS position on climate can be read on the organisation's website.